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How Low Can You Go?

Bali's October Arrivals Drop. We Try to Make Sense out of the Arrival Statistics.

Bali News:
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While November arrival figures have not yet been published, October's foreign direct arrivals in Bali totaled 87,000, reflecting the sudden decrease in passengers and flights following the October 12th terror attack.

How Bad Was it, Really?

While the local and regional travel press reports point to the just announced October arrival figures, claiming a 44.62% decrease in arrivals from the previous month of September, such an analytical approach is fundamentally flawed and reveals little regarding the impact of the October attack on Bali travel. Traditionally, September is high season for Bali tourism while October qualifies as a "shoulder" period, leading into the "low" season of November and early December.

The 87,000 direct arrivals for October, in fact, represented a 10% drop from last year's arrivals for the same month in 2001 (96,557). That figure, however, may also be misleading in that the October 2002 arrival figures bore the negative impact of the 9-11 attacks of that year.

However, averaging the October arrivals for the 3 years, 1999-2001, (110,203) show that the totals for October 2002 were some 21% below the average.

September's Performance

As reported in the local press, the decrease for October contrasted sharply with the previous month of September that produced a record-setting 157,000 direct foreign arrivals for Bali. Again, the 9-11 attack of 2001 make comparisons problematical. The September 2001 arrivals (133,667) when compared to September 2002's performance shows a 15% improvement in 2002 for the same month's average results for 1999-2001 (136,120) and an 18% improvement over September 2001. will share the November arrival figures, likely to reflect the continuing drop in arrivals, as soon as they become available.

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