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When Less is Actually More

Bali by the Numbers: A Further Look at November Arrivals in Selected Markets Shows Business Down, But Overall Situation is Vastly Better than Post Bombing November 2002.


(12/19/2005)

As reported in the last installment of Bali by the Numbers, the post bombing foreign direct arrivals to Bali continued their southern slide, down -43.26% from arrivals recorded in November 2004, representing a somewhat worsening slump from the -36.83% decline month-to-month for October 2005, the month immediately following the latest October 1, 2005 attack.

But all is not doom and gloom when we compare Bali's foreign arrival performance to November 2002, a month with ironic parallels to our current circumstances in that it, too, was a November immediately following a Bali bombing attack.

Note the following:



This November's declines was, on the whole, less severe than in 2002. November 2002 month-to-month arrival dropped -56.74% while arrivals to Bali in November 2005 dropped by a less burdensome -43.26%.

All in all, Bali is still nearly 100% ahead of the game. Compare total foreign arrivals in post-bombing November 2005 to post-bombing November 2002 and you'll discover that Bali hosted 99.08% more visitors (62,705 versus 31,497) in the month following the latest attack.

Australia is down, but much less so than was the case in 2002. In November 2002 Australian visitors plummeted -70.22%, a much steeper decline than the -54.81% decline in the current year. Again, despite the downturn, there were 130.68% more Australians in Bali in November 2005 (8,496)than in the same month in 2002.

Japanese visitors warrant a closer look. Negative Japanese reaction to the latest terrorist bombing has created a steeper decline in business than occurred in 2002 (down -61.23% versus -41.13%). But, after the fallout, in aggregate terms, there are still 46.01% more Japanese tourists this November than was the case in November 2002.

South Koreans followed a similar pattern. -49.44% fewer South Koreans came to Bali in November 2005 than in the same month in 2004. A slight improvement over the -56.75% decline in November 2002, this market has grown such over the past 3 years that there are now 91.60% more South Koreans on the island than there were 3 years before.

Taiwan - The Taiwanese clearly did cut and run after the latest bombing , declining -62.29% in November 2005 versus the same month in 2004. Well far from ideal, South Korean turned in a better performance than the -77.02 drop recorded in the 2002 post-bombing November. And, the numbers don't lie – there’s +91.50% more Koreans in Bali in the current post-bombing period than was the case in 2002.



Singapore - The latest bombing caused the Singaporean market to crash -44.12% in November against the same month in 2004. While this is a larger negative reaction than the relatively modest -16,57% decline in November 2002, there's no denying that were still 64.44% more Singaporean in Bali in November 2005 than in November 2002.

Malaysia Similarly, Malaysian traffic was more resilient, dropping less in the current November (-37.47%) than was the case in November 2002 (-50.27%). But who's really counting? Cheap air fares and wide air access resulted in a whopping 732.21% more Malaysian being in Bali this time round for November than happened 3 years before.



Europeans and North Americans Taking Things in Stride?

Across the board, Europeans are showing less skittishness as regards travel to Bali than was the case three years ago.

U.K. While the Brits stayed away in droves in 2002 (-80.08%), a much less dramatic decline of only -11.76% occurred this time round. Proving that less is indeed more, there were 185.05% more U.K. citizens in Bali this November than was the case 3 tears before.

Germany - The Germans declined -24.37% this November as compared to one year before. All in all, a much better performance than 2002 when the German market dropped -56.40%. In the end, 81.89% more Germans were in Bali this November around than 3 years before.

The French Market Grows - Taking a contrarian's path, the French market grew 9.9% in November from one year before. Moreover, there were 186.18% more French passport holders in Bali this November (3,065) than recorded 3 years ago.

Bless the Dutch - The Dutch market also grew 1.59% in November 2005 with 71.25% more Dutch around than the same month 3 years ago.



Americans and Canadian Fighting Back

U.S.A. U.S. passport holders decline a modest -22.99% this November, a stronger performance than the -35.30% decline in the November 3 years before. All in all, there were 76.08% more Americans in Bali than the case 3 years ago.

Canada - Likewise, Canadians declined only 19.9% in November with 71.77% more Canadians on the island than 3 years ago following the first bomb.

Direct Arrival Per Region until Nov. 05


More information: A Deepening Crisis

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