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January – The Road to Recovery

Bali by the Numbers: January Arrivals Demonstrate a Less Severe Reaction to 2005 Bombing and Changing Market Share in Island Arrivals.


(2/20/2006)

The final foreign direct arrival figures for January 2006 of 79,721 continue to sustain a feeling of optimism that Bali's recovery following the October 2005 bombing attack is underway. While January’s arrivals represented a -21.78% decline from January 2005, the gap in arrivals is narrowing markedly from just one month before which had a -36.98% gap between December 2005 and December 2004's foreign arrivals.

Bearing in mind that both Bali terror attacks occurred in the months of October (2002 & 2005), it's also worth noting that January 2006's arrivals down -21.78% from January 2005) were substantially less depressed than January 2003 which suffered a -30.09% decline from the same month one year before (2002). These results allow the argument to be made that the impact of the most recent bombing appears perhaps less prolonged than was the case following the 2002 incident. Not only is the downturn in visitors less severe this time round, but the overall market is substantially larger with 31.04% more visitors coming to Bali in January 2006 (79,721) than was the case in January 2003 (60,836).



Changing Market Share

As presented on balidiscovery.com, the January arrival figures also show significant changes in market share.

In presenting market share anaysis from major source markets for what is arguably the more "static state" month of January 2001 as compared with the performances of January 2006 and 2005, we discover:

• Australian arrivals continue to be very depressed accounting for a shrunken 8.5% market share in 2006 as compared to a "normal" share of between 17 and 19%. When comparing both "post-bombing" Januarys, the reaction of the Australian market to both incidents are largely similar, with business declining by more than 60% in both January 2003 and January 2006.

• Despite the current decline, Japanese visitors continue to represent the largest inbound market for Bali at a 20.05% share of all visitors. Japanese arrivals are down -41.7% from just one year before in January 2005.

• Taiwan remains Bali's third largest market. Arrivals for January 2006 actually improved 20.39% over January 2005 – a month in which arrivals were possibly skewed by post-tsunami jitters.

• South Korea – Bali's 4th largest market – although down slightly, continues to perform consistently accounting for a 5.79% market share of all arrivals.

• Evidence that initiatives by the Government of Indonesia to stimulate the mainland Chinese market may be paying off is found in the strong arrivals of 4,112 PRC visitors in January 2006. Although still relatively modest, PRC arrivals represent a 10-fold improvement from arrivals recorded just 3-4 years before. Rate of growth may be more significant than current size when considering the PRC market. Potentials for future growth from mainland China's outbound tourism market are very significant.

• Malaysian arrivals are now representing a 5.18% market share, up considerably from the mere 1.32% share they held in 2001 before the advent of Air Asia.

• Greater air access and easier visa facilities are having a positive impact on Russian arrivals to Bali. The Russian market share in January reached 5.42% - substantially improved from January 2001 when Russians accounted for only 1.63% of all Bali arrivals.

• European arrivals are generally showing a slow yet steady improvement with market shares for the U.K., France, Germany , Italy and The Netherlands largely resembling "more normal" times of just 5 years before.


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