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How Big is the Domestic Market to Bali?

Bali by the Numbers: Passenger and Cargo Numbers Provide Fresh Insights on the State of Bali's Tourism and Export Economies.


(4/23/2006)

Data recently obtained from Angkasa Pura I - the management authority for Bali's Ngurah Rai International Airport, is providing some fresh insights on the actual size of the Bali domestic inbound market, the seasonality of Bali's tourism, and the state of the export trade from the Island.

How Big is Bali's Domestic Market?



Click to enlarge!


While not a perfect measure of the number of domestic visitors to Bali due to the inclusion of Bali-based residents and the omission of passengers arriving overland via the seaports of Gilamanuk and Padang Bai, a comparison of the number of inbound domestic and international air passengers traveling to Bali does provide a benchmark glimpse of the size of the domestic market and the increasing number of visitors traveling to Bali by air.

In 2005 a total of 3,162,426 passengers arrived on both domestic and international flights to Bali. Compared to 2001, when the number of inbound passengers totaled 2,237,189 this represents a 41.4% increase in passengers handled by Bali's airport in just 5 year's time.

Arrival figures also demonstrate the major impact the deregulation of the Indonesian domestic air system and the resulting increase in new carriers with special fares have had on Bali's tourism. From 2001 to 2005 the number of domestic passengers arriving in Bali increased 111%, reaching 1,651,245 in 2005.

In terms of market share, domestic inbound air passengers jumped from just 35% in 2001, to a dominant 52.2% share in 2005.

The Seasonality of Bali's Tourism Business





Click to enlarge !


As shown on balidiscovery.com, when arriving domestic and international passengers are graphically plotted on a monthly basis clear patterns reflecting the seasonality of Bali's tourism business begin to emerge. Because of the sudden downturn in arrivals from all markets following the October 1, 2005 terrorist attack, we have presented month-by-month arrivals for domestic and international passengers for both 2004 and 2005.

These graphic representations suggest:

Somewhat surprisingly, the pattern of both domestic and international passenger arrivals share the same seasonality with matching cyclicality.

Bali's high-season extends from July through September/October, re-emerging again for the last half of December each year.

Bali's lowest season is from mid-January through April, although it is important to note that arrivals during this period by no means "bottom out."

Cargo Loads as an Indicator of Bali's Exports



Click to enlarge!


Again, lacking as a sure indicator of the state of the Island's export industries, a look at the total amount of domestic and international cargo uplifted from Bali does provide at least some insight into the state of the Island's manufacturing/export sector. To wit:

Over a five-year period from 2001 to 2005, international cargo shipments consistently outpaced the domestic sector. Domestic cargo represented 18.5 of all cargo shipped in 2001, growing to a 24.4% market share in 2005.

Outbound uplift of cargo reached a peak in 2002 totaling 45,188 tonnes and declined steadily in each succeeding year, totaling only 28,537 tonnes in 2005, a delcine of -36.8%.

Possibly affected by higher fuel prices and the terror attack of 2005, total uplift of both domestic and international cargo dropped -29.19% from 2004 to 2005.

Although shrinking in terms of market share, domestic cargo uplift ex Bali has remained relatively stagnant for the period 2001 through 2005, averaging 7,666 tonnes per year.


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