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October Arrivals to Bali by Major Markets

Bali by the Numbers: October 2006 – the Month that Bali Foreign Arrivals Turned the Corner?


As reported on [Signs of a Turnaround in Progress], foreign arrival totals for Bali hit 112,629 in October 2006. While direct comparisons with the "bombing affected" month of October 2005 are problematic, there are signs that Bali may be shaking off the damage to arrival numbers visited upon the island by the October 1, 2005 terrorist attack.

Total Foreign Arrivals

As show in the graphics presented on

▪ Unsurprisingly, October 2006 arrivals (112,629) were +38.85% ahead of 2005 (81,109) when visitors either cancelled their Bali Holidays or abbreviated their stay in the aftermath of the bombing.

▪ More worthy of note, however, is the fact the October 2006 arrivals were only -12.23% behind the more representative benchmark of October 2004 when 128,399 foreign visitors came to Bali.

▪ That the gap in "normal" arrivals has narrowed to -12.23% is encouraging when compared to shortfalls in arrivals of hovering between -23% to -27% for the period July-August 2006.

Japanese Arrivals

▪ Japanese arrivals for October 2006 (24,685) are up +31.10% as compared to October 2005 (17,006).

▪ When compared to the more representative month of October 2004 (32,867), October arrivals for 2006 are down only -24.89%. This represents a narrowing gap in arrivals against the months of January –September 2006 when Japanese arrivals were down in a range from -31% to -36%.

Australian Arrivals

There's little good news in the arrival figures from Australia which continues to suffer a lingering depression.

▪ October 2006 (11,201) arrivals were even worse that October 2005 (12,801); down -12.49%.

▪ When compared to more representative numbers presented by total Australian arrivals in October 2004 (25,701), arrivals are down -56.41% suggesting little signs of recovery in arrivals which continue to lag more than 50% behind normal tourist flows dating form the first quarter of 2006.

Taiwanese Arrivals

▪ Taiwanese arrivals for October 2006 (10,886) are +41.21% ahead of the same month in 2005 (7,709) which was adversely impacted by terrorism in Bali.

▪ Compared to the more "steady state" month of October 2004 (12,314), Taiwanese arrivals were down -11.59% suggesting a narrowing in the gap of arrivals which measured down -20.35% in August 2006.

European Arrivals

▪ European arrivals were much less affected by the October 2005 terrorist attack with October 2006 arrivals (32,472) showing positive grow over both October 2005 (+20.29%) and October 2004 (+8.69%).

The Americas

▪Like their European counterparts, travelers from North and South America produced positive growth in arrivals for October 2006 as compared to October 2005 and October 2004.

▪ October 2006 arrivals from The Americas totaled 5,930 a figure +30.90 better than October 2005 (4,530) and +1.76% higher than October 2004 (5,827).

▪ In terms of The Americas, October 2006 may prove to be the watershed month in which arrivals from that market entered into positive growth territory.

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