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A Definite Lack of Market Diversity

Bali by the Numbers: A Closer Look at Arrivals January – July Show Rapid Growth and Over Dependence on Certain Key Inbound Markets.

(9/4/2005) As reported at balidiscovery.com [ Bali's July Arrivals Set New Record Highs] foreign direct arrivals for July 2005 totaled 158,453 – a 7% improvement over the same month one year before and an all time record high for the month.

That same report showed, that at least in terms of aggregate arrivals, Bali is achieving new highs albeit at the a cost in quality with visitors now staying for a shorter period of time and spending less on a per diem basis.

A Concerning Lack of Diversity

A closer, market-by-market look at Bali's foreign direct arrivals for the first seven months of 2005 suggests that the island’s tourism industry may be at threat due to a pronounced lack of diversity in its inbound tourism markets. Bali top four markets – Japan, Australia, Taiwan and South Korean constitute a whopping 61.46% of all arrivals. This over-dependence on only 4 market sources puts the island at instant risk of any hiccup in the market, such as the thwarted call for a Bali boycott from Australia earlier this year.

A closer look at arrivals over the past 5 years from Bali's key markets shows:

• Japan remains Bali's top source market, comprising 24.26% of all foreign arrivals January-July 2005. Recovering of this market appears complete with numbers from Japan setting all-time highs.

• Taiwan arrivals to Bali are down a dramatic 31.3% from just one year ago. Easier access for Taiwanese travelers to mainland China and lingering Tsunami fears are cited for this sudden shift.

• Mainland China arrivals, although down slightly from an unexplained surge in 2004, are expected to climb dramatically with the introduction of a visa-on-arrival facility for PRC passport holders effective August 1, 2005.

• South Korean visitors continue to demonstrate a steady growth curve with the potential in time to move into 3rd place in the ranking of top inbound countries, replacing Taiwan as a source of Bali visitors.

• Australia's love affair with Bali continues apace, undiminished by threatened boycotts and negative travel warnings, setting new all-time records in tourists arrivals. 8.4% growth in arrivals over last year make a lack of saleable rooms in the Kuta-Seminyak strip and a shortage of available air seats ex Australia the biggest challenges to maintaining the current impressive growth in Oz tourism to Bali.

• The Netherlands is managing to ignore the snubs embodied in visa discrimination and are back in Bali at numbers almost equal to 5 years ago.

• U.K., Italy and Germany – while showing respectable year-to-year growth in arrivals are still lagging badly behind business flows demonstrated 5 years ago.

• Coming off a strong charter season in January 2005, Russian travelers are up considerably for 2005. Look for even more dramatic growth with the liberalization of visa polices for Russian citizens which became effective on August 1, 2005.

• The Americas – constituting all travelers from North and South America, has grown 16.6% since last year but is still 25.7% behind the numbers produced in 2001.

• Singapore and Malaysia have emerged in the course of only the past few years to become significant producers of tourist numbers to Bali, due to their growing home economies and access to low cost air fares to Bali.





Shown on balidiscovery.com are arrival figures from selected markets January-July 2001 – 2005 with graphics tracking changes in arrivals from those markets over the same period.