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Arrivals Down, But for How Long?

Bali by the Numbers: Arrivals Drop After Latest Bomb as Industry Waits to Know Depth and Length of Business Downturn.

(10/17/2005) While damage to Bali's tourism industry incurred by the October 1, 2005, bombing is still being calculated, the general consensus in the marketplace is that the business downturn this time around may prove less severe and of shorter duration than that experienced following the October 12, 2002, bombing.

A preliminary look at the figures indicates:

For the first 11 days of October 2005 compared to the same period in 2004, arrivals are down 27.46%.

If statistics are corrected for October 1-3, 2005, days which did not yet fully reflect the potential downturn in business as many holding bookings continued to arrive on Bali, the downturn in average foreign arrivals to Bali suggest that overall arrivals are down between 35-40%, at least for the short term.

Anecdotal evidence from Japanese and Australian operators and airlines indicates that business from these markets is currently down by as much as 50%.

The Bali Hotel Association (BHA) reports substantial drops in average occupancies, falling from an average 90-95% on October 1st to 45-50% on October 13, 2005.

No data is yet available showing the impact of the most recent attacks on Bali's important domestic market, estimated in normal times to represent as much as 60% of total Bali arrivals. All eyes will be focused on the coming Lebaran Holidays (November 2-3, 2005) a period which should give a clearer indication of whether or not the Indonesian market is shying away from the island following the October 1st bombing.