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January - September Arrivals: Peak or Precipice?

Bali by the Numbers: January – September Foreign Arrivals Examined by Key Markets from 2001 – 2005.

(10/29/2005) Arguably, made only interesting from an academic perspective due to the October 1, 2005 bombing attack, cumulative foreign arrival statistics for January – September do provide some insight on the general vitality of the key markets feeding Bali’s tourism industry.

Focussing on arrivals from key source markets for 2001 – 2005, balidiscovery.com presents the totals and graphics that demonstrate:

• Japan - At the end of Q3 2005 Japanese visitors were setting new record highs for Bali, up 10.9% against 2004 and representing a 23.2% market share of all Bali's foreign arrivals.

• Taiwan - Although still holding firm to the number 3 position in terms of all Bali arrivals, Taiwanese visitors have eroded badly, down 25.15% at 110,605 January through September 2005 – a 30% drop in Taiwan’s market share in just one year! Local observers blame the Formosa down turn on lingering tsunami fears and competition from mainland China which recently liberalized its entry requirements for Taiwanese visitors.

• PRC - Although endlessly lauded for its great potential as a Bali source market, mainland China managed to generate only 13,282 visitors to Bali in the first 9 months of 2005, a figure down a discouraging 18% from the same period in 2004.

• South Korean - South Korean arrivals continued to grow nicely through Q3 2005, increasing 18.9% over 2004 and up 170% from figures recorded just four years before in 2001.

• Australia - Prior to the October 1st bombing, it was obvious that Australian’s just couldn't get enough of Bali. Q3 totals from Australia set a new record high at 218,905 – a 7.5% improvement over 2004 and representing an 18.8% market share of all arrivals to Bali.

• New Zealand - Perhaps complicated by the lack of direct air connections, New Zealand arrivals were in the doldrums at 14,837 through Q3 - a figure down 10% from one year before and lagging 30% behind the numbers recorded in 2001 (21,136).

• U.K. - U.K. visitors were charting strong recovery signs through the end of Q3 2005, up 58.9% over just one year before. Despite this strong performance, U.K. visitors were still in a game of "catch up" - lagging 33.6% behind the kind of numbers recorded through the end of Q3 2001.

• Italy - Arrivals through the end of Q3 2005 are almost on a par with 2004, but still 43.2% behind the performance for Italian arrivals in 2001.

• Germany - Despite a very trouble economy in Germany, arrivals to Bali through the end of Q3 2005 had improved 15.3% year-to-date and were only 6% behind the more robust arrivals recorded in 2001.

• France & Switzerland - An excellent performance through the end of September – up for the year 15.3% for France and 12% for Switzerland – both operating at levels largely reminiscent of the "very good year" of 2001.

• The Americas - Representing all North and South American arrivals to Bali, this market was up 16.7% through the end of Q3 for 2005 as compared to just one year before. Reasons for joy but not rejoice; these figures still lag 26.6% behind the totals for the same period in 2001.

• Singapore - Despite a masterful performance over the past 4 years, improving 111% over arrival totals recorded in 2001, Singapore arrivals had failed to regain lost vigour following the tsunami and are down 5.9% from 2004.

• Thailand - Thai travellers also seemed to have forsaken seaside holiday destinations following the 2004 tsunami with arrivals down 35.6 at the end of Q3 2005 as compared to one year before.

• Malaysia - Bolstered by cheap air fares in abundance, Malaysians are continuing to enjoy cinepxensive holidays breaks in Bali improving 33.8% over 2004 and up a dramatic 318% from the "pre-cheap-fare-era" of 2001.