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January 2006 Arrivals Fuel Cautious Optimism

Bali by the Numbers: Preliminary Arrival Numbers for January Suggest Recovery May be Well Underway.

(2/12/2006) There are encouraging indications that Bali may be gradually emerging from the business slump following the October 1, 2005, terrorist attack.

Un-audited arrivals figures for January 2006 show 82,575 foreign visitors landed at Bali's international airport during the first month of the year.



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balidiscovery.com's take on the preliminary figures suggest:

Daily arrivals for January 2006 averaged 2,663 - down only -19% from the 3,288 visitors who arrived every day in January 2005.

January 2006 daily arrivals were, however, a full 26% higher than the 1,962 daily average arrivals recorded in 2003 the previous January when Bali's arrivals were afffected by an October (2002) bombing.



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Also, in comparing the two post-bombing periods, January 2006 arrivals increased 8.83% over December 2005, contrasting positively with January 2003 when arrivals were still declining and down -4.03% from December 2002 arrivals. If February figures continue to post improvements will determine whether or not Bali has "turned the corner" on its way to recovery or if the surge in January business was a reflection of increases due to last month's Chinese New Year travel patterns.

Also suggestive that a tourism recovery may be underway is the fact that the decline in arrivals for January 2005 versus January 2004 was only -18.98%. This is a substantial improvement from December 2005 when arrivals were down -36.98% as compared to December 2004 and when also compared with the massuve -39.71% decline for Q4 2005 versus Q4 2004.

Similarly encouraging is the fact that January 2005's decline of -18.98% against January 2005, was a substantially better performance than the January 2003 to January 2002 decline of -30% following Bali Bomb I (2002).

In our next edition of Bali by the Numbers we will present a close look at January 2006 arrivals by major markets.