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Have We Got Pie in the Sky Apple Pie Hopes?

Minister Wacik Insists that Indonesia Will Hit 7 Million Foreign Tourist Arrivals in 2008. The Figures Suggest Otherwise.

(6/2/2008) Indonesia's Minister of Culture and Tourism, Jero Wacik, remains bullish that Indonesia will hit its ambitious target of 7 million for 2008, pointing to a lifting of the U.S. travel warning and added seat capacity from key markets to Indonesian destinations.

Realistic?

At the end of Q1 2008 Indonesia's tourist arrivals are running 15.7% ahead of arrivals at the end of Q1 2007. Based on the 5,505,759 total visitors to Indonesia in 2007, the current improvement rate (15.7%), if sustained, will only produce an impressive final output of 6,370,163 foreign visitors for the year; a number nearly 9% short of Minister Wacik's 7 million projection.

In fact, in order to achieve that 7 million visitor target Indonesia must play a very hard game of "catch up" and then sustain a year on year increase growth rate of 27.14% for the entire remainder of 2008.