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November Winds Bode Ill for Bali Arrivals

Bali by the Numbers: Denying Bali a Record 2 Million Visitors for 2008, November Arrivals Suggest a General Softening in the Tourism Market.

(12/27/2008) Total foreign tourist arrivals to Bali for the month of November 2009 are now in and lending credence to the view that the rapidly declining world economy has finally hit Bali's shore. November 2008 arrivals stood a 141,841 and, although the “best ever” November on record were only 0.05% ahead of the totals for November 2007 (141,768).

With January-November cumulative arrivals at 1,801,864 expectations of breaking the psychological barrier of 2 million visitors for the entire year are all but dashed. Balidiscovery.com’ revised projections for the year are that the Island will end the year with a total near 1,925,000. That figure, if achieved, will represent a 15% improvement in arrivals for the year and a new "personal best" for the Island.

A quick glance at main market performance January-November reveals:

JAPAN - Still Bali's top producing market at 333,030 arrivals January-November, Japanese arrivals are only 1.75% ahead of the same period in 2007. The Japanese market share for Bali is down from 21.57% in 2007 to 18.48% this year.

AUSTRALIA - Australian arrivals continue to amaze with 282,343 Australian visitors to Bali in the first eleven months of 2008. Representing a 15.67% market share, Australian numbers are up 54.88% over the same period in 2007 (182,301).

SOUTH KOREA - The declining value of the Won has caused the South Korean market to shrink 0.07% totalling 121,767 January-November 2008.

TAIWAN - The Taiwanese market is down 9.54% in 2008. totaling 119,551 for the period January-November 2008. The same period in 2007 saw 132,165 Taiwanese visit Bali.

MAINLAND CHINA - The Chinese market has boomed remarkably in 2008, up 50.10% for January-November 2008 (116,468).

MALAYSIA - Malaysian number also improved in 2008, up 22.21% at 113,354 for January-November 2008.

GERMANY - German arrivals increased 20.25% in the first eleven months of 2008, hitting 76,392. Signs, however, are that arrivals may be softening from Germany and the rest of Europe as a recession economy overtakes all of Europe.

UNITED KINGDOM - U.K. visitors improved 16.89% through November 2008 (75,141). Expect this market to soften over the coming months.

FRANCE - French arrivals January-November 2008 totalled 70,462 – that’s an improvement of 22.38% over the previous year. France teeters on the edge of recession meaning these numbers are likely to soften over the months ahead.

U.S.A. - The lifting of the U.S. travel warnings have prompted U.S. arrivals to increase 24.30% January-November 2008 (62,024). The sudden burst in U.S. visitors are expected to soften over the coming months.



Arrivals January - November 2000-2008

Click image to enlarge