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(7/6/2012) May 2012 foreign tourist arrivals suggest that the halcyon days of double-digit growth in monthly tourist arrivals to Bali may be at an end. May arrivals totaled 215,868 – an increase of only 5.56% as compared to arrivals for May 2011 (204,489).
Bali: 3 million Tourists in 2012
On a cumulative basis, Bali foreign tourist arrivals for January-May 2012 hit 1,131,462 demonstrating growth of 9.71% over the same five months in 2011. With five months arrivals under its belt, Bali can now project more than 3 million foreign tourist for all of 2012, if the current rate of growth is sustained until year's end.
Performance from Major Source Markets
Australia – More and more Australians continue to visit Bali with month-on-month arrivals up 9.3% at 61,266 for the month of May 2012. While this is a respectable rate of growth, Australia’s ability to generate double-digit improvement in arrivals month after month may be ending.
Year-on-year Australian arrivals for the first five months of the year are up 9.71%. If this rate of growth is sustained, Australia will generate over 860,000 visitors for the entire year.
Peoples Republic of China – The PRC is now squarely in second place as the second largest source of visitors to Bali. May 2012 arrivals of 19,089 saw 22% more Chinese visitors than the same month in 2011. Chinese arrivals surged during the Lunar New Year meaning year-on-year arrivals from the PRC are up an astounding 64.82%
Malaysia – Malaysia arrivals now ranks #3 among all foreign visitors to the island. May arrivals totaled 16,311 – an increase of 12.9% over May 2011. That Malaysia’s growth in arrivals to Bali may be cooling is indicated by a year-on-year growth factor of 3.57%. Malaysia has moved up from 4th place among all arrivals in 2011 to its current ranking of #3.
Japan – Once the undisputed leading source of Bali visitors, Japan has slumped to a distant 4th place. After an extended period of month-on-month negative growth in arrivals from Japan, it appears that governments plans to encourage more direct flights from that country is reaping rewards. May 2012 arrivals from Japan are up 8.2% when compared to May 2011.
And, while year-on-year arrivals through the end of May are down 11.95% from Japan, both April and May have once again shown positive growth in arrivals from that market.
South Korea – South Korea has moved into 5th place among all arrivals to Bali, May 2012 arrivals, however, slipped 12.6% when compared to 2011 at 10.121 arrivals.
Year-on-year South Korean arrivals are up 6.15%.
United Kingdom – The U.K. has move up a notch in 2012 to 6th place among all source markets for Bali. May arrivals from the U.K. (8,651) improved 10.39% over the same month in 2011. Year-on-year U.K. arrivals have improved 12.51%
Taiwan – Taiwanese arrivals are on the decline, despite new flights flown by Garuda to Taipei. Slipping to 7th place among all arrivals from its former #5 position just one year ago, Taiwan arrivals fell a dramatic 38.8% in May 2012 as compared to May 2011. Year-on-year there are 14.76% fewer Taiwanese visiting Bali thus far in 2012.
France – French arrivals to Bali are stagnating, improving only 1.5% in May 2012 at 9.673 visitors.
Year-on-year visitors from France are down 0.21%.
Russia –Russian arrivals dipped 6.41% in May 2012 at 3,937 visitors. Year-on-year arrivals from Russia through the end of May are up 6.46%
U.S.A. – The U.S.A. markets continues to demonstrate strong growth month-on-month with an increase of 22.51% at 7,777 visitors.
U.S. visitors year-on-year are up 11.41% through the end of May.
Germany – Germany is a bright spot among European arrivals to Bali up 26.8% as compared to May one year ago. On a cumulative basis, through the end of May, German arrivals are up 10.83%.
The Netherlands – Dutch arrival continued to be lackluster, up only 2.2% in May at 4,570 visitors. On an aggregate basis through the end of May, Dutch arrivals are down 2.9%.
Arrivals By Geographical Area
Regional traffic is shaping Bali’s tourism destiny with 71.71% of all arrivals coming from the Asia-Pacific and ASEAN. If the impact of domestic arrivals, put at 55% of all arrivals, is thrown into the mix, then something on the order of 90% of all tourist arrivals to Bali come from domestic and regional sources.