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June Bali Foreign Tourist Arrivals Decline

Bali by the Numbers: Bali Foreign Arrivals Level Off as June Bookings Decline. Are Days of Arrival's Growth Ending?

(8/12/2012) Clearly, Bali arrivals have arrived at a plateau. Gone are the days of month-on-month double digit growth in arrivals to Bali calling into doubt optimistic projections by the island leaders that Bali will achieve 5 million foreign visitors by 2015.

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In June 2012 a total of 238,296 foreign visitors came to Bali, a decline of 0.8% over June 2011 when 240,154 foreign tourists came to the island. June together with April is the second month in 2012 in which month-on-month foreign arrivals have declined.

On a cumulative basis January-June 2012 visitors are up 7.73% totaling 1,369,758.

3 Million Foreign Tourists Predicted for 2012

Extrapolating foreign arrivals by assuming a steady 7.73% growth rate through the end of the current year, Bali should welcome close to 3 million tourists by the end of 2012.

Arrivals by Major Markets

Australia – Australian arrivals month-on-month declined slightly (-0.003%) in June with 72,084 visitors from down under. Year-on-year January-June there were 379,372 visitors to Bali representing an increase of 8.15% over the same period in 2011.

People’s Republic of China – Arrivals from the PRC for June were equally flat at 19,648 visitors – up only 0.014% month-on-month. Due to the strong start on the year from the PRC, year-on-year PRC visitors are up 53.29% overall with 163,103 Chinese visitors for the period January-June 2012.

Malaysia – Is the shine off Bali for the Malaysian market? June 2012 arrivals totaled 13,654 – a decrease of 17.5% when compared to June 2011. Cumulatively, Malaysian arrivals for January-June are down 0.6% at 82,996 visitors.

Japan – Once the main source of foreign visitors to Bali, Japan has now slipped into 4th place. While year-on-year through the end of June Japanese arrivals are down 8.97%, there is some indication that the government’s policy of enhancing air access from Japan is paying dividends. June arrivals ex Japan at 14,643 represent a month-on-month improvement of 7.62%, and makes June 2012 the third consecutive month in which Japanese arrivals improved as compared to 2011.

Is a turn-around in Japanese arrivals to Bali now underway?

South Korean – South Korean arrivals now rank 5th overall with 10,200 South Korean visitors in June 2012 a decrease of 0.8% when compared to June 2011. On a cumulative basis for the first 6 months of 2012 South Korean arrival are up a modest 3.51%.

United Kingdom – U.K. arrivals are strong, moving up from a ranking of 7th last year to 6th for the current year. Month-on-month U.K. arrivals for June totaled 9.641 – an increase of 13.01% as compared to June 2011. On a cumulative basis for the fist six months of this year, U.K. arrivals are up 12.59%.

Taiwan – Taiwan arrivals to Bali appear to be troubled. June arrivals from Taiwan at 8,996 are down 31.9% compared to the same month one year ago. Taiwan’s ranking has slipped from 5th to 7th place in the course of one year. Cumulatively for the first six months of 2012 Taiwanese arrivals are down 18.21%.

U.S.A. – U.S. tourism to Bali improved 8.1% in June 2012 with 8,838 visitors. Year-on-year U.S.A. visitors are up 10.76%.

France – French tourists coming to Bali in June increased 4.3% as compared to June 2011. France sent 7.353 tourists to Bali in June 2012. Year-on-year arrivals from France are virtually flat, improving only 0.84% during the first six months of 2012.

Russia – Russian arrivals in June improved 22.6% totaling 3,863. For the first six months of the year Russian tourists are up 7.77%.

Germany – Germany arrivals slipped 2.28% in June at 6.750 visitors. Year-on-year for the first half of the year German visitors have improved 8.02%,

The Netherlands – Dutch visitors to Bali continue to decline, down 3.5% month-on-month for June 2012 with 4,784 visitors. Year-on-year Dutch visitors are down 3.04% for January-June 2012.

Geographically Asia-Pacific and ASEAN represent a combined 72.02% market share of all foreign tourist arrivals to Bali.